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Annefield Vineyards, Black Ankle Vineyards, climate change, Drink Local, global warming, Jim Law, Linden Vineyards, Maryland Wine, phenology, Tarara, VaWine, Virginia, Virginia Viticulture, Virginia Wine, White Hall Vineyards, Wine
Is Early The New Normal? Virginia and Maryland Winemaker’s Perspectives on Global Warming and Possible Effects on Grapevine Phenology
Several weeks ago I had the pleasure of participating in a media tour with the First Lady of Virginia, Maureen McDonnell, as part of her FLITE program — First Lady’s Initiatives Team Effort. (A detailed recap of the tour is forthcoming).
The day started with a visit to Delaplane Cellars (on Twitter: @DelaplaneCellrs), then an amazing lunch at The Ashby Inn, and an afternoon visit to Linden Vineyards for a tour and tasting with Jim Law, one of the early pioneers of the Virginia wine industry. A grape grower since 1981, Jim is one of the most respected vintners in Virginia (and beyond), consistently producing some of the most highly regarded wines in the Commonwealth, which makes any visit with Jim a treat for the vinously inclined.
View of Linden’s vineyards from crush pad.
On the day that our FLITE group visited Linden, the entire Mid-Atlantic region was in the grasp of an oppressive heat wave with temperatures in the mid to upper 90′s each day, and many more sweltering days in the forecast. With the temperature nearing 100 degrees on the afternoon of our visit, the climate, and its effect on Linden’s vineyards, was a topic of conversation.
It was during the discussion about viticulture trends that Jim made a statement that shocked me — ‘early is the new normal.‘ It’s not so much what Jim said that surprised me — I’ve heard this same thing many times before in other places — it’s the fact that ‘he‘ said it.
Early, as in early bud break, early fruit set, early veraison, and early harvest — ‘the whole cycle of growth has become early,’ says Law, which he attributes to global warming. In a subsequent exchange, Jim noted that the average date of bud break for his Chardonnay in the 1980′s and 1990′s was April 20, and the last few years bud break has ranged from April 7 to April 20.
Others in our group of media and industry folk seemed unmoved by Jim’s ‘early is the new normal‘ statement.
Jim Law in the Linden cellar
Perhaps they are all more aware and plugged in to matters of the environment than I am. Given the many global warming opinions masquerading as fact coupled with the staggering amount of information on the subject, I’ve avoided lingering too long on this topic and have not formed an educated position — especially in the context of the impact to vineyards in Virginia.
However, when someone with the experience (~ 30 vintages) and street cred of Jim Law makes such a statement, I’m inclined to believe that global warming is indeed having a direct impact on grapevine lifecycle here in Virginia.
Many other Virginia vintners have similar viewpoints, including Jeff White of Glen Manor Vineyards (on Twitter: @GlenManor), another of Virginia’s most experienced and respected winegrowers. Jeff echoed Jim’s thoughts on the effects of global warming in the vineyard;
‘As someone who lives very close to nature/weather, I have noticed over the last 20 years changes that I attribute to global warming. And for the record I do believe that man is principally the cause of this change, from our emission of greenhouse gases… yes “early is the new normal” sounds about right. Migratory birds appear earlier in the spring and stay later in the fall. Budbreak, flowering, veraison and harvest dates all are moving early. Part of the problem, I think, is Earth is in a transitional phase of this phenomenon, demonstrated by the tug of war going on, with very hot seasons and still very cool ones too and storm systems seeming to be much more severe than I remember just a few years ago, but maybe in another 20, 50, 100 years it will be more clear. I have also read that growers in Champagne are buying up land in England because it’s becoming too hot in France for their style of wine.’
Jeff makes an excellent point about the seasonal tug of war. Though I don’t have the same farming experience and perspective as Jeff, I have noticed these weather extremes in our corner of the state — significant snow fall in the winter (like 14 inches of snow in one day) followed by severe heat in mid-spring and throughout the summer.
Sharing this view of seasonal extremes is Mark Fedor, co-owner and winemaker at North Gate Vineyard (on Twitter: @NorthGateWines) in Loudoun County, who says, ‘the wild extremes from one season to the next (2010 and then 2011) are what drive you crazy. If there is a gradual change over time then that is much easier to deal with.‘
Seasonal weather extremes have become more common in the U.S. as illustrated on the graph below from the Climate Extreme Index maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
This chart shows that in the last several decades, the prevalence of extremely warm low temperatures has overwhelmed extremely cold low temperatures. Source: NOAA CEI
Jon Wehmer, owner and winemaker at Chatham Vineyards (on Twitter: @ChathamVineyard) on Virginia’s Eastern Shore, adds, ‘there is no doubt, we have seen extreme weather conditions [on Eastern Shore vineyards] from droughts to floods to mild winters and hurricanes. The trend has been earlier rather than later in terms of vineyard conditions. This has been a trend that we have observed over a short period of time. Historic weather data has shown these fluctuations for hundreds of years. It is difficult to comment because I can only speak on my experience of growing grapes for 14 years and perhaps 10 years with my parent’s vineyard that was planted in 1970.’
It is these weather extremes — prolonged record-setting heat followed by consecutive days of torrential rain from severe storm systems that is then followed by more record-setting heat — that causes the most concern for many winemakers. One vintner from Oregon told me that the increasing temperatures across the globe is not ideal, but is manageable since the increases are gradual; however, the extreme fluctuations in weather conditions from one day or one week to the next is what negatively impacts grapevine health right now.
Just north of the Virginia border at Black Ankle Vineyards in Mt. Airy, Maryland, west of Baltimore, winemaker Ed Boyce notes a similar experience with early grapevine lifecycle conditions:
‘Everything is earlier than it used to be. I think you can add the fact that 30-50 years ago most growers did not think growing vinifera was possible in our region; now it is the norm. No one can say it is Global Warming for sure, but it is hard to explain it any other way. The vines are the first to know when the climate changes.
Interestingly, I think most growers in this region (maybe not Southern VA) would agree that the changes have helped them so far, although clearly this may change in the future. I am already thinking of finding more North facing land to plant whites so that they ripen more slowly.’
Other winemakers have told me they too are looking for north facing hillsides for future plantings, but no winemaker told me that climate change has been beneficial. An interesting point to be sure since climate change is normally framed in a negative context. If there are grapegrowers reading this that feel climate shifts have been beneficial, please leave a comment on this post, or send me an email.
Jordan Harris, winemaker at Tarara Winery (on Twitter: @TararaWinery) located in Northern Virginia’s Loudoun County, told me that he does believe global warming exists, but doesn’t believe grape production has been altered as a result. Jordan continues,
‘Global Warming can just as easily bring long masses of cold air. The reality of the “Greenhouse” affect is that it sort of locks in climatic cycles. I do think we have been in a long warm cycle, but that has happened before all over the world. Just looking at wine vintages that can be seen. Very often the top vintages of a particular region are crammed together while there will be long stretches of less then ideal vintages. To me this is all about climate cycles, which takes years to reverse themselves. I am sure that global warming does intensify these cycles, but I will not be making any rash decisions based on this thought.
There are other factors that I believe have led us all to believe climate change has affected viticulture more than it really has. Ultimately there are too many variables in my opinion to say that climate change has created early [bud break, veraison, harvest] to be the new normal and I have not even accounted for changing winemaker and vineyard managers. For example we have harvested on average about 1.5 weeks later since 2007 when I arrived from when we ever did before. It was a stylistic thing. In fact, 2010 was the latest we have harvested any fruit in our Nevaeh Vineyard, not pulling some Cabernet Sauvignon and all of our Cabernet Franc until October 23-24. Last year our Mourvedre saw snow, but that was an odd circumstance and an odd grape.
Another example looking the other way would be to put your eyes on California. It really seems this discussion is bigger in Virginia because of the hot years 2007, 2010, 2011 (was hot and dry, just crushed by the harvest rains) and 2012. In California they have had some of the coolest years in 2009, 2010, and 2011.
I think Global Warming exists and will likely get worse, however there is a lot more to when the grape harvests have been happening than simply climate change.’
Jordan is correct in that there are many other variables to consider before concluding definitively that climate change is responsible for earlier bud break, veraison and harvest. Nevertheless, the amount of evidence in favor of global warming as the primary culprit is close to the convincing stage.
I must however respectfully disagree with Jordan that the global warming discussion — early is the new normal — is bigger here in Virginia. Extreme weather conditions and early phenological events are a hot topic across the globe. Across the pond, about 4,000 miles east-northeast of Virginia, the impact of global warming is a reality as some of France’s most storied Champagne houses consider land in England — yes, England — as an option for potential production as the changing climate becomes a larger ‘worry point‘ for vintners.
Further east of England in Germany, a recent study found that ‘bud break occurs already 7 days earlier… veraison 12 days earlier as compared to the average conditions over the last 40 years.’ In Australia, a similar story published in The Week reported that on average, Australian wine grapes are ripening 20 days earlier than in 1985. Here in the U.S., a recent study by scientists at Stanford University in California, report that the amount of land suitable for cultivating premium wine grapes in areas of Northern California could shrink by 50% by 2040 as a result of global warming.
Nationwide, temperature statistics track with the findings of the aforementioned studies. According to the latest weather normals (1981-2010) reported by NOAA’s NCDC, temperatures across the U.S. were on average 0.5 degrees (F) warmer than the 1971-2000 time period (Ed. Note: 30-year normals are used by NOAA to compare current climate conditions with recent history). And, the climate of the 2000′s is about 1.5 degrees (F) warmer than the 1970′s. Warm is becoming the new norm.
Source: NOAA
Nearly every state experienced warmer temperatures, including Virginia, which was slightly warmer than the average increase (ugh, the loss of acid pains me to even think about).
Although these studies along with anecdotal vineyard observations make a compelling case for the effects of global warming, it is, in the spirit of balance, important to note that many other factors can potentially impact the lifecycle of a grapevine — mesoclimate, macroclimate, clones planted, vine management, vine health, and winemaker stylistic preferences.
These other factors may be why the effects of climate change are not evident (yet) in all vineyards. ‘We have not seen any new trends in our viticultural conditions here at IPV [Ingleside Plantation Vineyards]. We continue to have normal variation in our timing of budbreak and harvests‘ says Doug Flemer of Ingleside Vineyards on Virginia’s Northern Neck. Tony Champ from White Hall Vineyards (on Twitter: @WhiteHallWinery), just outside of Charlottesville, VA, reports that ‘last year (2011) the harvest was about three weeks earlier than normal but this year it appears it will be on our traditional schedule.’ 
Given the number of differing experiences along with so many other factors like mesoclimate, vine health, and winemaker style preferences to consider, it’s impossible to definitely conclude whether or not early is the new normal. There is however, a growing body of evidence — a staggering amount actually — that global warming is impacting grapevine phenology. All indicators appear to signal that warm is the new norm.
Editorial Disclaimer: I feel the need to state the obvious — I am not a vintner, not a farmer, and definitely not anything close to a scientist. This blog post, which will be edited for publication in a print magazine, is NOT intended to provide a comprehensive treatment of the impact of global warming and extreme climate change on vineyards. Instead, the intent of this post is to scratch the surface of a deep subject that will be part of the viticulture (and that of daily life across the globe) narrative indefinitely.
Winemakers, does climate change have you rethinking future plantings or site selection(s)?
What say you?
A special thank you to Stephen Ballard of Annefield Vineyards (on Twitter: @AnnefieldWine) for providing an editorial eye for this piece – much appreciated!
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Questions, Comments, Complaints, Random Observations? Contact Me Here
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Kudos Frank,
It is generally agreed that viticulture is the most sensitive form of agriculture to climate change, as affects the chemistry of the final fruit. Viticulture had been common in Britain until the big freeze of the 14th century and was not possible until very recently.
In Alsace, the research station in Kolmar has recorded increasingly warmer temperatures since 1973, which was nearly 40 years ago. In 2009, I was shocked to taste a 2005 riesling from Alsace that was 15%, and it was from leading producer Zind-Humbrecht.
In Oregon, producers are planting higher on hillsides because of rising alcohol levels.
You should check out the research of Gregory V. Jones of Oregon State University who has done a lot of work on this. He says that the numbers show that Napa Valley is at the upper level of temperatures that are sustainable for the production of fine wine and it’s worth considering that in 1970, most of the grapes planted there were petite sirah. Based on the increasing heat levels in the subsequent decades, they should probably go back to petite sirah and get ready to make port.
These changes affect all of us though, and if we continue to get consistent rains around labor day like we did this year, or rain all month in September like last year, we’ll be in trouble as well.
Thanks for stopping by to comment, Richard. I appreciate your insights. The subject of climate change did come up during several discussions during Wine Bloggers Conference last month in Portland/Willamette Valley. One vintner did tell me he recently went to higher ground with new plantings assuming that temperatures would continue to rise.
And, excellent point about the rains… not sure if the September showers are directly related to climate change, but certainly troublesome for the winemakers.
Hah why such a short article.
I dont need studies to tell me something is going on with the weather its obvious to anyone paying attention. Summers are hotter and winters are warmer is a fact. Just look at how insects seem to get worse every summer.Last few summers mosquitoes have been the worst I can remember and they come earlier and are here longer. A real problem is how many more bugs and pests are in the vineyards. This will be a big problem.
Jeff — are you insinuating that I am wordy. This piece is only 2,200 words, half of which are quotes from winemakers. I thought about posting this is two parts, but figured I would lose interest of readers (as if 2,000+ words isn’t enough to lose interest). haha.
Agree with you about the insects, especially mosquitos. They were terrible this summer here in southeastern, Virginia – worse than I can ever remember by far. We said the same thing last summer as well.
I believe insects have always been a concern for Virginia grape growers, but there are clear signs of them getting worse. Stephen at Annefield Vineyards raised the same point in an email exchange — he sent me a reference document from Virginia Tech on the growing concern of Pierce’s Disease (being observed in ‘new’ areas otherwise just out of reach of this disease):
http://www.arec.vaes.vt.edu/alson-h-smith/grapes/pathology/extension/factsheets/pierces_disease.pdf
An interesting point made in this fact sheet is how Pierce’s disease is transmitted to grapevines from various insects… ‘The Xf bacterium resides in the xylem (water conducting system) of the grapevine and is transmitted to the grapevine by insects, specifically sharpshooter leafhoppers and spittlebugs.’
All very interesting. Thanks for commenting.
It should also be noted that there are as many beneficial insects as there are harmful ones.
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Frank – I should re-iterate, that absolutely Global Warming exists, but Early being the New Normal is not simply because of Global Warming. I also still believe it is a larger topic here in Virginia then many places. In general Global Warming intensifies climatic patterns. For us that could include rain at harvest. As oceans also increase in temperature, this will increase the intensity and frequency of rain.
That said, looking at the examples you use there are many factors that would lead to those decisions and statements, not just global warming. Champagne producers looking toward England makes sense for many reasons above Global Warming. England has very similar climatic patterns to Champagne (Read – the weather sucks in both places, great for Sparkling!) Areas of England are also phyically joined by the same land as Champagne. If you look at the geology the same Chalk subsoil goes deeper as it goes west before resurfacing at the White Cliff of Dover and beyond. These soils are (in my opinion) the reason Champange and in turn England are special for sparkling wine production. By planting in England, Champagne producers can reap a lot of the same benefits of growing in Champagne but have a different product that they can market to the world at potentially a lower price point without hurting the brand of Champagne. They may be looking at England as a new place, but I have not heard of any Champagne producers say they are going to abandon Champagne. In Australia they would have to furthere define ripe. All over the world from the early 80′s until recently there was a wildly different goal in a finished wine. It was strongly created by Emile Peynaud who convinced many Bordeaux producers to lower yields and pick later for riper flavors. The 1982 vintage was the first real example of this philosophy which for over two decades pushed Bordeaux to new heights. The result was a world wide shift to making more opulent and hedonistic wines that may have lacked elegance as a result. This is one thing that really made the Australian wine industry through massive beyond ripe Shiraz. They were able to achieve these results at higher yields and therefore at a better price point. As the world got tired of the wines of the 80′s, 90′s and early 2000′s wine makers all over the world have started to aim at lower alcohols, brighter acidity and still maintain fruit. The Australian wine industry pretty much crashed and is now trying to come back with different varieties and from different regions to showcase the new style of wine. Shiraz as well is getting harvested earlier, not because of simply Global Warming, but because they don’t want the same style the did 10, 20 and almost 30 years ago. As for Germany, it is the most convincing of the three arguments, but it too needs to be looked at deeper instead of simply putting it off to Global Warming. You have to look at the history of Germany and why their reputation collapsed in the 60′s, 70′s and 80′s. They had created their QmP and QbA systems that were poorly created. They are the best example of how creating of a quality control program can be detrimental when done wrong and allowing too much. They did not regulate varieties so many people who though they were getting Riesling were generally getting Muller Thurgau or other lesser varieties like Silvaner and Siegerrebe. Think Blue Nun which contains no Riesling. These were done for higher yields while being able to market as a quality wine internationally for less money. It killed the reputation of Germany and Riesling. Then it should also be mentioned the picking decisions and pruning decisions will also influence bud break. Was the fruit picked earlier for fresher acidity? That will leave mopre reserves in the vine for healthier overwintering which can result in an earlier bud-break. Pruning earlier will also result in an earlier bud-break. We here are very selective as to what is pruned when to influence bud break all the time. There are also new fertilizers available, differnt spray’s etc that will influence this. As for the California argument, I simply don’t by it yet. There are way too many influencing factors to their climate in the top areas for me to believe this yet. When the Pacific Ocean stops pushing fog into Paso Robles, Carneros and Sonoma then I will worry.
Now I am not trying to say that Global Warming doesn’t exist, because it clearly does. As Jeff comments above, just look at the weather. The bugs are also because of them getting imported (apparently accidently) unfortunately, like Stink Bugs and MALB which don’t belong here, but are here to stay. We in Virginia do have more to worry about then most because of the climatic issues that we already have being intensified. If hurricane season is intensified, that hurts us more then almost anywhere for viticulture. Our biggest pressure unfortunately is at harvest time, unlike many regions whose cycles leave the majority of the harvest season at least predictable. Global Warming, does exist, it just is not the sole or in most cases the main reason for a lot of decisions and changes yet. Maybe it will be and we do need to do something while we can, but for now there are so many other factors that lead to the Eraly being the New Normal.
Hi Jordan – thanks for your thoughtful comment, and your comment on this subject for the post. I find the subject of changes in grapevine lifecycle as a result of global warming/climate change to be a fascinating one, as well as, insanely confusing. For every study that provides facts supporting climate change, there is another study that disputes the first study with alleged facts.
In this piece, I tried to present a balanced view from vintners that are experiencing changes in their vineyards and those who have not. I believe each winemaker I interviewed acknowledged the existence of global warming related changes. Thankfully none of them thought climate change was bunk (this is a good sign).
In my attempt at balancing this subject, I tried to highlight some of the other factors — mesoclimate, vine health, winemaker style, etc. — that can and does effect (or, is this a chance to use ‘affect’) grapevine phenology. There really is no ‘absolute’ way of knowing the extent of climate change’s impact on vineyards, or any other agriculture product. The bottom line for now seems to be that there are climatological trends are changing and extreme weather systems seem to be more frequent. Makes me glade I’m not a grape grower.
Cheers!
Frank, I think you did a very good job of writing a balanced piece. The only real problem with talking about Global Warming when it comes to something like viticulture is that there can never be a definitive answer. I have my views as I am sure all the winegrowers above, the readers and yourself. The interesting thing is (I was going to write problem, but it isn’t, I like good conversation) that it is impossible to prove one side or the other. It is easy to prove that global warming exists, but it’s impact on viitculture is much more challenging since it is such a long process and no vineyard could ever act as a control. That would require not changing with the times or adopting new knowledge for 20, 30 and even 40+ years. With ever changing clones, vineyard practices, winemaking decisions, it just can’t be properly shown. I am sure there is some impact and if there isn’t, there will be, but how does one prove it is more influencial then any other changes.
All of these pieces are part of what makes wine, viticulture and winemaking so exciting. Where I differ from your on your last point is that it is one more reason I love being a winegrower! I have different challenges every day and the rewards are huge to me. That and I feel I can do my best to make a difference as someone working with the land to leave that land better then when I got there.
Hi Frank, thought you would enjoy this visualization of drought on our ground water, a factor in wine production as much as the heat, hurricane season and everything covered above! http://youtu.be/nddXeGhZmbk
Hi Frank et. al.
A great article about a subject near and dear to my heart. I worked on global climate models in grad school at Oregon State, then U Maryland/NASA Goddard Earth Science in the late 80s thru mid 90s. I think you all have covered a lot of ground and presented a great applied science approach with anecdotal evidence.
To answer your question Frank, as a small vineyard less than 10 acres, with little elevataional change or options, our plantings will not likely change soon. We worry about microclimate/microterroir to pick our plantings that fit well within the large scale climate system variations.
The latest that I have read on the climate subject supports what has been said here. The jet stream is responsible (along with ocean currents) for our regional climate variations. As temperature rises (and it is rising), more ice in the arctic ice cap melts. As the process goes on the arctic ice recedes, more land/water mass is exposed and more solar radiation is absorbed warming the arctic in general and slowing down the geographic movement of the jet stream as it continually snakes north, south, east and west. A warmer arctic makes the jet stream lazy. A lazy jet stream causes longer periods of sustained extreme weather. Eventually the extremes will become the new normal as the jet stream settles in its lazy pattern. Makes sense to me.
Studies of climate change around recent ice ages show climatic stressors for thousands of years with increasing extremes and long periods of different climate patterns. These patterns finally stablize in a relatively short period of a couple hundred years. That short period of change makes it hard for species of all kinds to adapt. Seems consistent with the latest scientific studies regarding our current climate change.
If I were a large house or had many holdings, I would definitely be looking for new vineyard options to hedge my bets. However, it’s all still a guess as to how it’s going to shake out. Doesn’t matter if you’re a glass half full, or a glass half empty kind of person. The climate will do what the climate does. Personally, I’d recommend that all of us be the glass half full… of wine people ; )
Thanks for weighing in, Derek. I did not know you were a Duck, wait, no, a Beaver.
I learned the difference between Ducks and Beavers from my Oregon friends during WBC last month.
A lazy jet stream – new to me, a quick Google search yields some fascinating reading. This seems like a great subject for the Agriculture and Vinology crew at Virginia Tech.
Glass half full… of Virginia wine – agreed!
Don’t have much to add which has not been said so well by all!
Though climate change is absolutely real (it has been changing for millions of years!!), I suspect is not clear if we are now “fluctuating” or fundamentally changing to a different “state”. And what does it mean for a specific site.
The problem is time scale. If you adopt a 10-20 year time frame then we are witnessing fundamental changes in most wine regions – definitely in Australia and Europe.
But can anyone say a) how far we are going to deviate from “norm” and b) will it ever swing back? In 100 years? In a 1000 years? Apparently one of the projected consequences of continued “warming” is the stopping of the warm Gulf Stream, and thus throw Northern Europe (ironically) back into another ice-age …
Those time frames may seem silly, but wine used to be a generational thing. It is about being responsible custodians of land, forever …
I suppose it is also a particularly sensitive problem for wine because the best grapes are grown in marginal conditions. Thus small changes matters. There is also a limit on how nimble a farmer can be! As mentioned by Derek, from a commercial perspective, those that can hedge by having different sites are in a better position (e.g. Torres is definitely looking for altitude in Spain). Alas for those that can’t …
Thanks for commenting, Tai-Ran – appreciate your perspective on this given your global experience. Interesting point you raise about whether or not the climate is ‘fluctuating’ or ‘fundamentally changing.’ None of us know for sure, but many of the strongest opinions that I’ve read point to fundamental shifts. Certainly makes for interesting conversation.